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Mon Feb 4, 2008 2:10am EST(2008년 2월 4일)

UPDATE 2-Asia coal prices at record as supply crunch bites
By Fayen Wong SYDNEY, Feb 4 (Reuters) -


Coal prices jumped to a fresh record of more than $115 a tonne at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, as a global supply crunch worsened after a series of supply disruptions in key coal exporting nations.

(호주 뉴캐슬항구에서 거래되는 석탄가격이 톤당 115달러 이상으로 껑충뛰는 경이적인 기록을 세웠다)



China, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, said on Jan. 25 that it would halt exports in February and March after the nation's worse snowstorms in 50 years disrupted output and caused unprecedented power shortages across the country.

News of China's supply halt was immediately followed by severe power shortages in South Africa, forcing miners such as Anglo American Plc (AAL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) to shut their mines. Adding to a worsening a global squeeze, several Australian producers last month declared force majeure on immediate coal shipments due to recent heavy rain and floods in the key mining state of Queensland.

Thermal coal prices jumped $23.09 from a week earlier to $116.44 per tonne, globalCOAL's NEWC weekly index showed in the week ended Feb. 1, based on free-on-board (FOB) prices loaded at Newcastle port. (일주일전 톤당 116.44달러에서 또 23.09달러나 폭등)

"Spot coal prices will continue to rise. It doesn't look like there are many bearish factors in sight to push prices down," said Mark Pervan, a resource analyst at the Australia & New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group. Ensham Resources Pty Ltd and BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance were among the four Australian miners that have issued force majeure on shipments after heavy rains flooded their mines.

Some analysts estimated that the recent supply disruptions in Australia, China and South Africa could have removed about 5 million tonnes of thermal coal from the export market in 2008.

A worsening coal shortage have driven coal prices up 21 percent so far this year. Indonesian coal exporter Bumi Resources Ltd BUMI.JK said last week prices could reach $150 a tonne FOB because of the tight global supply. Thermal coal prices, used for power generation, were largely buoyed by physical trades on Friday.

A 15,000-tonne parcel of Australian coal for March delivery traded at $130 a tonne, and a 35,000-tonne Newcastle parcel also for March loading traded at $129 a tonne, FOB. COAL SCRAMBLE The supply disruptions in China and Australia have seen many Asian utilities, particularly South Korean power plants, scrambling for additional tonnage.(호주산 1.5만톤 3월 인도분은 톤당 130달러에 거래, 또 다는 3.5만톤은 129달러에 거래)

Thermal coal stocks at South Korean utilities have fallen to less than two weeks worth of supplies, a source at one of the companies said on Friday [ID:nSP220313], and traders said the firms were seeking urgent spot shipments. "Supply is so tight at the moment that users just have to pay whatever producers are asking. And if they sit around and wait, they will either have to fork out even higher prices or be told there is no more tonnage available," said a trader.(한국의 비축분량은 2주동안 사용할 수 있는 양보다도 적다고 한 회사관계자는 말함. 그래서 다른 석탄수출항구를 급하게 찾고있으나 웃돈을 주고도 석탄을 구하기 힘든 상황임)



Japanese utilities, including Chubu Electric (9502.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and Tohoku Electric Power Co (9506.T: Quote, Profile, Research), were also expected to start scouring the market for more urgent supplies in a week or two, as their stockpiles start to fall, industry sources said.
(일본도 석탄수급 부족으로 긴급하게 새로운 석탄 공급처를 찾고 있음)


Utilities that cannot afford to pay up for coal may face power cuts, traders said. Philippine state-run utility National Power Corp (Napocor) has failed for a second time to secure fresh coal supply for three plants due to high prices, which could potentially cause a power shortage in parts of the country [ID:nMAN47424].

The current supply crunch has been exacerbated by power shortages in South Africa, which has previously been able to serve as a backup for extra tonnages when Asian supplies run low. South Africa, which experienced a severe power crisis last week that forced the the shutdown of several major mines, is seeking around 11 million tonnes of additional coal supply for 2008 to build bigger stocks and prevent power cuts, state utility Eskom [ESCJ.UL] said on Friday [nL01416183].

South African coal mines were also making slow progress in bringing back production after Eskom allowed them only limited increases to their electricity consumption [ID:nL01792485]. Coal sellers in Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporter, said they were mostly fully contracted for 2008 supplies and North Asian utilities would also have to compete with Indian buyers for any available shipments they might have.
(Editing by Ramthan Hussain)








Thursday, 07/02/2008(2008년 2월 7일)



Coal price set to double (석탄가격 따블시세)



The price of Australian coal is set to double as demand from Asia expands and world supply remains tight.

The spot price for coal used in steel production has soared to around $200 a tonne, well above the current annual price of $96. (작년 연말 톤당 평균 96달러 하던 석탄값이 톤당 200달러에 접근)



Analyst Marion Hookham from Barlow Jonkar says that price rises across the board should drive more expansion in the coal industry and a big increase in government royalties, currently worth one and a half billion dollars.



"You are looking at 60-70 per cent impact on that royalty number", she says.

"Higher prices will generate more development activity, will bring on mines that may have been seen as marginal, will definitely propel growth of Queensland provinces, like Surat.

"There certainly are some outlying basins that had been overlooked or the quality was perhaps not as good as in the Hunter Valley.

"All of those areas will be re-examined".






Saturday, February 9, 2008 (2008년 2월 9일)


Global surge in coal demand sends prices north


Rumour that Asian steel company paid $275 a tonne 'a real mind-blower' David Finlayson, The Edmonton Journal(아시아의 한 철강회사가 톤당 275달러 지불했다는 루머)
Published: 1:31 am


EDMONTON - A surge in global demand for coking coal has ignited prices and mining company stock, including Grande Cache Coal.

Shares in GCC have almost doubled in value since Monday to $3.38, and other Western Canadian producers also experienced increases following rumours that an Asia steel company had paid $275 U.S. a tonne for hard coking coal, more than double last year's price.

Hard coking coal is turned into coke by integrated steel mills, which account for about two thirds of worldwide steel production.


View Larger Image
A power shovel loads a coal-hauling truck at Grande Cache Coal's open pit mine.
Chris Schwarz, The Journal, File

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Font:****Floods in Australia have squeezed an already-tight market and increased the demand for Western Canadian coal, which can be shipped relatively inexpensively through Vancouver or Prince Rupert. GCC is selling all it can produce at last year's mid to high $90s per tonne price, and CEO Robert Stan said he'd heard that a contract had recently been signed for 300,000 tonnes at $275 US a tonne.

"I think this year's prices could well double, although we haven't yet had a benchmark settlement we could point to."

Coal contracts are negotiated annually in early spring and Stan said GCC needs a big increase over last year when it took a kicking from the high Canadian dollar.

"A price of $150-$200 a tonne would be great for us."

This week the company reported a third quarter loss of $3.4 million, or five cents a share, compared to a loss of $2.2 million, four cents a share last year. Analysts were forecasting as much as an 11 cents a share loss.

Many analysts are building a doubling of coal prices into their forecasts, and Chinese domestic spot prices have hit $194 US for February delivery. In its newsletter this week, Canaccord Capital called the $275 a tonne figure "a real mind-blower."

"With all the Australia supply issues that have come to light, needless to say Canadian coal assets have become very strategic to any one of a number of Indian and Chinese interests."

GCC only produces one per cent of the world's coking coal, but Stan said they plan to increase production from about 1.6 million tonnes in the current fiscal year to close to two million next year.

In the last 18 months the company has moved from using contractors to buying its own equipment and hiring its own people. The last long-term contractor will be out of the operation by summer, and Stan said costs are down to a manageable level.

"We were at a point where we had to make some major changes, and like a lot of companies it was a painful operation trying to find people and equipment."

"We're at the stage now where we have sufficient people -- 300 by the end of March -- for a period of time."

They brought in some underground miners from South Africa last year, and a dozen more are coming this year. They also had some success at a recent recruiting drive in Nova Scotia's Cape Breton area, Stan said.

Any increase in coal prices is good news for the town of Grande Cache, which has been on a boom and bust roller-coaster ride since the mine was developed in 1969. It changed hands several times before finally closing in early 2000. GCC acquired some of the leases later that year, and started developing a new underground mine.


해외언론들은 석탄의 국제시세에 대하여 연일 폭등하고 있어서 전세계를 떠들썩하게 하고 있는데, 도대체 우리나라 기자양반들은 아직도 방구석에서만 틀어밖에 있군요.



월요일부터 대한민국의 모든 언론매체, 이명박정부도 아리둥절 하겠군요.



월요일부터 떼돈벌려면 현재 해외에 탄광지분을 보유하고 있는 회사나 석탄생산하고 있는 업체가 어느 회사인가 알아보시오..

(제가 알기로는 경동, sk, 삼지전자, 삼일CNC, 현대상사, 포스코 정도로 알고 있습니다만....)




작년에 톤당 40달러가 현재 100달러를 넘어서 이제는 200달러, 300달러까지 폭등하는 날이 도래하고 있다는 느낌입니다.



아시아의 어떤 철강회사는 톤당 275달러를 지불했다는 에드몬톤 저널의 기사도 사실인 듯 하군요.

석탄의 공급물량이 부족하여 아무리 웃돈을 주고도 석탄을 구할 수가 없으니 이제 제철회사, 시멘트회사는 그야말로 파탄지경에까지 도달했네요.



구글에서 " coal prise " 라고 입력하고 검색해보니 석탄수출항구마다 아우성이 하늘을 찌르는 듯 하군요.